Who Is Winning The US Elections, 2024 On The Internet?
Rahul Vij
Updated: November 6
Members of Electoral College: 538
Votes required to WIN: 270
| Party | Nominee | Home State |
| Democratic | Kamala Harris | California |
| Republican | Donald Trump | Florida |
- Running Mate to Kamala Harris: Tim Walz
- Running Mate to Donald Trump: JD Vance
The 60th US Presidential election is scheduled for November 5th, 2024. The current vice president, Kamala Harris, is the elected Democratic party nominee after President Joe Biden stepped down from the presidential race on July 21, 2024. Donald Trump, a member of the Republican Party and the predecessor to Joe Biden, is running for the second time, non-consecutive term, after losing to Biden in 2020.
The elections will take place as scheduled, but for the time being, who is winning the elections on the internet?
Will America have its first woman president or Donald Trump’s second term?
Webspero Solutions, a digital marketing company, conducted thorough research using Google Analytics and Semrush to determine search trends for the US elections in 2024. The company’s cofounder ‘Rahul Vij’ firmly believes that:
“Research is the bridge between curiosity and knowledge, transforming questions into discoveries through persistent effort and exploration.”
- Semrush results regarding some trending topics around US elections:
| S.No | Topic | Global Search Volume | US Search Volume |
| 01. | Donald Trump For President | 1.9K | 1.6K |
| 02. | Kamala Harris For President | 13K | 12.1K |
| 03. | Donald Trump US President | 14.2K | 2.4K |
| 04. | Kamala Harris US President | 4.6K | 3.6K |
The search popularity for the last week according to the Google Trends:
The Result of The National Poll Averages
Kamala Harris is slightly higher than Donald Trump, according to the average National poll.
Source: 538/ABC News
- Kamala Harris: 48%
- Donald Trump: 46%
- Others: 6%
The polls have increased in the favor of the Democratic party. Before the withdrawal of Joe Biden in June 2024, the stat stood at:
- Joe Biden: 43%
- Trump: 48%
- Others: 9%
The Incidents Involving Candidates Running For President
Assassination Attempt On 45th President Of USA
The former president ‘Donald Trump’ survived an assassination attempt while giving a speech at an open-air campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024.
Perpetrator: Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old man from Bethel Park, Pennsylvania. He fired 8 rounds from an AR–15–style rifle from the roof of a nearby building.
Injury: Trump was wounded in his upper right ear, and the assassination ended up killing one audience member and injuring two other members of the audience. Thomas was subsequently shot & killed by the United States Secret Service’s Counter Sniper Team.
Trump Words: “Fight, Fight, Fight.”
Donald Trump made a public appearance after the assassination attempt and said:
| When I rose surrounded by Secret Service, the crowd was confused because they thought I was dead. And there was great, great sorrow. I could see that on their faces as I looked out. They didn’t know I was looking out. They thought it was over. But I could see it. I wanted to do something to let them know I was ok. I raised my right arm, looked at the thousands and thousands of people that were breathlessly waiting and started shouting Fight! Fight! Fight! |
There was 2nd assassination attempt on him near Florida Golf Club on Sept 15, 2024, which he survived again. This makes him one of the few candidates for president with dual assassination attempts.
There was Global coverage for the 1st attempt, adding to his popularity. An exponential surge was seen in Google searches on Donald Trump due to assassination attempts on him.
Presidential Debate b/w Trump & Harris
The second presidential debate was held on September 10, 2024, and broadcast on ABC. David Muir and Linsey Davis moderated the debate.
Viewership: 67 million people
Many viewers also expressed their reactions to the second presidential debate:
- 46% believed Harris had won the debate
- 19% thought Trump had a better debate
- 44% of respondents felt the debate increased Harris’s chances of winning the election
Among the surveyed people:
- 6% will change their voting decision after the debate.
- 76% remain committed to the original choice.
Verdict: According to a couple of snap polls, most viewers thought Harris had been the better performer. Some significant polls suggest that Kamala Harris’s lead increased from 2.5% points on the day of the debate to 2.9% points a week later.
Taylor Swift’s Support Of Kamala Harris
Taylor Swift took X just after the 2nd presidential debate and expressed her support to Kamala Harris by posting:
📲 | Taylor Swift via Instagram endorsing Kamala Harris
“I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election. I’m voting for Kamala Harris because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them.” pic.twitter.com/8rnYy3mqX7
— Taylor Swift News (@TSwiftNZ) September 11, 2024
She also expressed her support for Kamala on Instagram:
View this post on Instagram
According to the Yahoo News report, Swift’s endorsement has had a limited impact despite her Instagram post receiving more than 11 million likes. Around 8% of the respondents said Swift’s approval would make them “much more likely” or “somewhat” to vote for Harris in the upcoming 2024 election.
According to the ABC News:
- 53% of Americans, including 31% of Republicans, think Taylor Swift’s endorsement will help Kamala Harris.
- 4% of Americans believe Taylor’s support will negatively impact Kamala Harris.
There was a surge in Google searches, mostly with informational intent regarding “Kamala Harris for the president” after Taylor Swift publicly announced her support for Kamala Harris.
The average monthly search for “Taylor Swift Support” was around 880, growing by 2100% in 2024 with respect to 2023. In the last three months, Google searches for the same query have grown by 319%.
Impact Of Project 2025
In April 2023, the Project 2025 report was unveiled. However, Trump has said on many occasions that he is not a part of Project 2025.
Project 2025 is a 900-page policy manuscript that pushes extreme right-wing ideologies in the central government. The project aligns with some of Donald Trump’s radical claims. This has led to negative publicity of Donald Trump that may affect upcoming U.S. elections.
According to the latest Google trends,
There are 2,240,000 average monthly searches around Project 2025, which is 308% more than last year on the same query. The peak regarding Project 2025 searches was seen in July 2024, with 16.6 Million searches and around 2.24 Million searches in the month of August.
Schedule F
Project 2025 aligns with Trump’s intentions to use Schedule F, a job classification he created in an executive order in October 2020, to terminate more federal employees than are assigned to the president.
As of 2024, only roughly 4,000 government posts will be considered political appointments. That might alter with each new administration.
Schedule F will impact tens of thousands of experienced federal civil servants who have worked for many years under both Republican and Democratic administrations.
This was also seen in the Google searches concerning Schedule F, with almost 50K searches in July 2024. Average monthly searches amounted to around 14,800, which is 83% more growth than last year.
Impact Of Vivek Ramaswamy 2024 Presidential Campaign
Vivek Ramaswamy was running for the 2024 presential election but later suspended his campaign after the Iowa caucuses on 15th Jan 2024. He described himself as an “American nationalist” and “anti-woke” and, since suspending his campaign, has shown his support to Donald Trump.
He is very much opposed to abortion, considering it equivalent to murder. He has pretty much exclusively supported Donald Trump, and his support saw a rise in his popularity with respect to the presidency, particularly among young U.S. men.
| He took the idea of the US-Canada Border wall even further with his proposal: A wall along the 5,500-mile long (8,900km) US-Canada frontier. |
After his proposal, there were roughly 2,400 monthly searches for the Mexico wall. Vivek has also claimed that Kamala Harris’s tax plan will lead the US to an economic calamity. According to Google Analytics, there were 5.5K monthly average searches for US taxes, particularly around tax-free America.
The Rise In Popularity Of Trump Due To His Radical Claims
1. Trump has said to establish only two gender policies strictly. This led to a major backlash from young women voting members.
2. Former senior advisor to Trump ‘Steven Miller’ has talked about mass deportations.
3. Cut funding for any school with a vaccine or mask mandate.
4. Universal tariff of at least 10% on all imports.
5. Statements like these have led in favor of Kamala Harris and could work against Trump in the 2024 elections.
Final Verdict: Who Is Winning The Elections On The Internet?
For the 2024 United States of America Presidential Election, Kamala Harris seems to have the upper hand in online popularity.
Many media houses and agencies, like Fox News, claim that Donald Trump has more chances, although there are controversies associated with some events and, most of all, the controversies surrounding Project 2025.
Other media houses, like CNN and ABC, have suggested that Kamala Harris might become the first female US president. In the aggregate of search interest and polling, Harris consistently leads closer to election day, which might give her an advantage over Trump.
Webspero Solutions analysis of the online popularity of candidates for US president is quite profound. They have used Semrush and Google Analytics to their full extent and found out the intent of searches around many different queries, particularly around the incidents involving the candidates.
Most search intent is informational in nature and doesn’t particularly tell whether the user will vote for the same candidate that they searched for.
Elections 2024 will tell who will be the next president of the USA, but it’s quite clear from the search trends that people are very much interested and invested in the US Elections.